Ambitious global climate action could prevent up to 1.32 million premature deaths each year by 2040 by improving air quality, according to a new international study led by Cardiff University.
The study is the first to examine how air pollution moves between countries on a near-global scale. Researchers analysed cross-border pollution ‘exchanges’ in 168 countries, revealing how climate policies in one nation can directly affect public health in another.
Using advanced atmospheric models and NASA satellite data, the team simulated different emissions scenarios for 2040. They then combined these projections with health data to estimate how many lives could be saved under varying levels of global cooperation on climate change.
Lead author Dr Omar Nawaz from Cardiff University’s School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, said: ‘While we know climate action can benefit public health, most research has ignored how this affects the air pollution that travels across international borders and creates inequalities between countries.
‘Our analysis shows how climate mitigation decisions made in wealthy nations directly affect the health of people in the Global South, particularly in Africa and Asia.’
The findings suggest that global cooperation is crucial for ensuring fair health benefits. In a world where countries work together to reduce emissions, health gains are widespread. But in a more fragmented world with limited collaboration, poorer nations – particularly in Africa and parts of Asia – could face growing inequalities.
Although Asia stands to gain the greatest total health benefits due to its large population, African countries were found to be especially dependent on emissions reductions in other regions. In some scenarios, the proportion of health benefits Africa receives from action taken abroad actually increases when global cooperation weakens.
The researchers also found that even if total global air pollution falls, the balance of pollution moving across borders may shift, potentially leaving some countries more exposed than others.
Co-author Professor Daven Henze of the Department of Mechanical Engineering at the University of Colorado Boulder said: ‘Some climate policies could inadvertently make air pollution inequalities worse, specifically for developing nations that might rely heavily on their neighbours for clean air. It’s thus not sufficient to focus only on domestic co-benefits. More inclusive climate strategies entail explicitly accounting for evolving transboundary inequalities.
‘Holistic climate policy should therefore evaluate how dependent a nation is on others’ emissions reductions, how mitigation scenarios reshape air-pollution flows across borders, and whether global efforts are helping or harming equity.’
The full research can be read here.
Photo: Elena Mozhvilo
Leave a Reply