UK’s wind and solar well short of meeting 2030 target

According to new research published by Cornwall Insight, solar and wind (onshore and offshore) will account for just 44% of Great Britain’s electricity generation by 2030, well short of the 67% needed to provide Britain with ‘clean power’.

Another report, published by the Institute for Government shortly before the General Election, examined how Labour might go about achieving their ambitious plans for power sector decarbonisation should they be elected. It concluded that renewable energy infrastructure would need to be deployed at ‘historic rates’ given that the current rates would fail to meet the Conservative’s target date of 2035, five years later than Labour’s.

Cornwall Insight’s modelling experts have predicted how electricity would be generated in 2030, finding that solar would make up 16% of capacity, offshore wind 17% and onshore 11%. 

They conclude that the government’s ambition to double onshore wind, triple solar power, and quadruple offshore wind capacity is way beyond current projections.

Onshore wind will need to grow by 35GW, whereas the projected figure is 18GW.

Offshore wind will need to grow by 50GW, the projected figure is 23GW.

Solar will need to grow by 55GW, the projected figure is 45GW.

Cornwall Insight believe that this will require an extra £48bn on top of the £18bn currently budgeted. 

Tom Edwards, Principal Modeller at Cornwall Insight said: ‘Our findings highlight the urgent need for a step change in Great Britain’s approach to renewable energy capacity delivery. While the underlying goal to decarbonise the power system is one that many would agree is crucial for the country’s future, the gap between our current trajectory and the new government’s 2030 target is substantial. Without significant intervention, we risk falling far short of the decarbonisation goals.

‘Increasing the attractiveness of the CfD scheme for renewables schemes by increasing budgets or Administrative Strike Price caps is likely to draw in more developers, as the potential for better returns makes investing in GB a more attractive prospect. However, this is only one piece of a large and complicated puzzle. International competition for project development coupled with material shortages are challenging issues that often lie beyond a government’s control. Additionally, updates to grid connections, increased storage and a whole plethora of other policy changes will be needed to make a 2030 zero-carbon power system a realistic target.

‘The swift actions of the new government, such as lifting the de facto ban on onshore wind, are encouraging. However, much more needs to be done to turn decarbonisation promises into a reality.’