Exclusive: charity calls out ‘confusing’ air pollution alerts

Disparities between air pollution forecasts and actual measurements this week highlight how difficult it can be to manage your exposure and how confusing the government’s alert system is, according to Asthma + Lung UK.

Yesterday’s (17 August) air pollution forecast showed very high pollution levels in the southeast of England, but in reality, monitoring stations recording low levels of air pollution.

According to Defra’s UK-AIR, generally low levels of air pollution were expected on 17 August, perhaps with patches of moderate pollution in the southeast.

However, the model suggested a large swathe of high levels of air pollution in the southeast due to an overestimate of wildfire particulates from the continent, even though this had a very low probability of occurrence.

UK-AIR’s forecast for today, issued at 5am on Wednesday 17 August, read: ‘Once again, the model suggests high levels of pollution across the southeast, through this is currently not expected.’ The forecast has since been updated to remove mention of the modelled high pollution event.

This may cause confusion for vulnerable people, such as asthma sufferers, who may unnecessarily adapt their behaviour to avoid exposing themselves to high levels of air pollution.

A screenshot from Defra’s UK-AIR air pollution forecast on the morning of 17 August shows high air pollution levels predicted in purple.

Harriet Wilson-Edwards, Senior Policy Manager for clean air at Asthma + Lung UK, said: ‘We estimate that toxic air triggers symptoms for 3.4 million people living with lung conditions such as asthma and COPD, which can leave them fighting for breath or at risk of a life-threatening asthma attack. It’s therefore extremely important that these individuals who are at greatest risk from breathing dirty are alerted when air pollution levels are high, so they can take steps to protect themselves.

‘Our recent Alerting the Nation report found 80% of people with lung conditions said they didn’t use the government’s air pollution alerts, which we believe in part is because the alerts are confusing and hard to understand. Today’s conflicting messaging shows just how difficult it can be to manage your exposure; highlighting the shortcomings of a disjointed system that relies on separate modelling and monitoring practices that don’t talk to each other. 

‘As climate change gets worse, so will the quality of our air. The extended heat waves, droughts, and subsequent wildfires we are seeing across Europe and right here in the UK are having a devastating impact on the quality of the air we breathe, yet our air pollution alerts system is not currently capable of providing clear, coherent messaging to help people know what steps they need to take to protect their health.

‘We need a system that protects those who are most vulnerable, providing clear and accurate information to the general public alongside medically accurate health advice and measures that they can take to reduce their exposure and contribution to air pollution. We need the government to take the lead on this. One of the best ways they can show us they mean business would be to commit to curbing the levels of the most harmful form of air pollution to human health (PM2.5) in line with World Health Organization guidelines by 2030, rather than current proposals which delay compliance until 2040.’

Photo credit: UK-AIR / Supplied by Asthma + Lung UK