A new study has looked at how air pollution – specifically PM2.5 – affects deaths from cancers of the trachea, bronchi, and lungs (TBL cancers) across four major economies: China, the United States, Japan and South Korea.
Using data from 1990 to 2021, and projecting forward to 2050, researchers from China’s Sichuan University and the Nanchong Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, examined trends in cancer deaths linked to PM2.5 and explored how age, gender, and country-specific factors influence the risks.
Over the last 30 years the number of deaths per population from PM2.5-related TBL cancers has been falling globally. This decline was identified in all four countries studied here but at different speeds.
The United States achieved the sharpest drop, which the researchers put down to strict air quality laws, cleaner energy and strong healthcare systems. Japan and South Korea also reduced their burden, though more slowly, as their pollution levels were already relatively low.
China, however, consistently showed the highest cancer burden, reflecting the health costs of rapid industrial growth, heavy reliance on fossil fuels and uneven implementation of clean-air policies.
The study also separated pollution into two main sources: household air pollution (HAP) from burning wood or coal for cooking and heating, and ambient particulate matter (APM), from sources such as vehicles, factories and construction.
Globally, deaths linked to HAP have stayed stable overall, but with differences by gender. Women – who are more often exposed to indoor smoke from cooking – saw rising cancer risks, while men showed a decline.
In China, HAP-related deaths rose until about 2015, dipped for a few years, then began climbing again. In contrast, Japan, South Korea, and the United States have seen steady declines in HAP-related cancer deaths.
For ambient pollution, both global and country-level cancer burdens have generally gone down. However, China’s levels remain much higher than those of the other three countries.
Looking ahead to 2050, researchers expect global deaths from PM2.5-related cancers to rise again, despite improvements in high-income countries. This is mainly because pollution controls are weaker in many low- and middle-income countries and because the world’s population is aging.
Older people, who have been exposed to pollution for decades, face greater risks. Women in developing countries will also continue to be at higher risk due to reliance on polluting household fuels.
The researchers conclude that although some countries have made important progress in reducing pollution-related cancer deaths, the overall global picture remains troubling. They stress that strong laws and consistent enforcement can significantly lower the health risks linked to polluted air, while shifting to cleaner sources of energy, particularly in rural areas, is essential to safeguard women’s health.
The full research can be read here.
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