A new global study has quantified the huge health benefits of stronger policies to reduce road transport pollution, claiming that without such policies, premature deaths linked to air pollution from road transport – specifically PM2.5 and ozone – will rise from 193,000 in 2023 to nearly 278,000 by 2040.
The health gap between countries would also widen, with lower-income nations experiencing the greatest increases in disease and mortality.
The research, conducted by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT), George Washington University, and the University of Colorado Boulder, analysed health outcomes across more than 180 countries and 13,000 cities under 15 different scenarios.
They found that if countries implemented a combination of advanced emissions standards, electric vehicle adoption, accelerated replacement of older vehicles, and clean electricity to power EVs, an estimated 1.9 million premature deaths and 1.4 million childhood asthma cases could be avoided by 2040.
Such measures would be of particular benefit to children under five who bear a disproportionate share of the health burden. Young children account for half of all preventable asthma cases from NO₂, with road traffic emissions currently being responsible for over 250,000 new childhood asthma cases each year.
At the other end of the age range, adults over 65 make up 70% of preventable years of life lost from traffic-related pollution. Those living in urban areas are especially vulnerable.
In a scenario in which no new action is taken, deaths and disease from transport emissions in low-income countries are projected to double by 2040.
By contrast, developed countries would continue to see improvements due to existing policies such as vehicle CO₂ standards and emissions rules, but the researchers point out that even greater benefits are possible. A more ambitious policy mix, including accelerated fleet turnover and clean energy for electric vehicles, could prevent 149,000 additional deaths and 64,000 new asthma cases among children in Europe alone.
Lingzhi Jin, lead author from ICCT said: ‘The projected decreases in health burdens from road transport emissions in Europe are remarkable, but they are not guaranteed. Securing these health benefits relies on maintaining and enforcing existing clean air policies, including the CO2 standards and Euro 7 standards for cars and vans and heavy-duty vehicles.’
Dr. Susan Anenberg, co-author and Professor at George Washington University added: ‘Our research reveals an important opportunity to improve health for kids and adults by reducing harmful pollution in the air they breathe. Vehicle tailpipe pollution contributes to asthma development in children and increases cardiovascular and respiratory risk among adults. We urgently need coordinated global action to ensure all communities, especially those most at risk, benefit from cleaner transportation.’
Sheila Watson, Deputy Director of FIA Foundation, a co-funder of the work concluded: ‘The evidence from this study is crystal clear: implementing a strategic combination of emission standards, electric vehicle policies, accelerated fleet renewal, and clean electricity generation will save nearly 2 million lives globally over the next 15 years’
‘Policymakers must act on this evidence now in order to protect public health. This isn’t just about environmental protection—it’s also about saving lives and improving children’s health on a massive scale.’
The full research can be read here.
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