New research undertaken by atmospheric scientists at the University of Leeds has found that by 2050 up to 250,000 premature deaths caused by poor air quality could be avoided each year in central and western Europe if action is taken to cut greenhouse gas emissions.
The study looks at how different climate change scenarios would affect air pollution-related deaths in Europe by the year 2050. It finds that only the most ambitious climate action plan significantly reduces deaths (by 55%), while more moderate or weak plans lead to small increases in deaths.
Focussing on PM2.5 and surface-level ozone, the team used atmospheric modeling to examine health outcomes for the years 2014 and 2050 under three scenarios – low, medium, and high levels of climate policy ambition.
Their simulations revealed that the most deprived regions in Europe currently experience the highest death rates from air pollution. The researchers found that in 2014, PM2.5 was higher in central and eastern Europe, notably so in areas such as the Po Valley in Italy, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and southern Poland.
However, they found that reductions in emissions could help close this gap. Notably, even a medium-level response – focused on cutting emissions from housing, transport and industry – provided significant health improvements for disadvantaged areas.
Significantly however, the most ambitious scenario included reductions in agricultural emissions and provided the greatest benefits. Such emissions are a major issue in rural, poorer regions, which otherwise see fewer benefits from general climate policies focused on transport and industry.
This scenario would see air quality improve across Europe, with the most dramatic decreases in PM2.5 observed in central Europe, particularly in southwest Germany and urban areas like Paris. In these areas, PM2.5 levels dropped by up to 90%.
Dr Jim McQuaid, who led the research, said: ‘This work provides evidence that there are direct health benefits from moving towards a low carbon economy.
‘Air pollutants and the climate warming gases and aerosols are one and the same, it is very much two sides of the same coin. It was particularly good to see that those who suffer most from air pollution currently benefit most from the benefits of the the drive to a net zero world.’
Lead author Connor Clayton, a PhD student in the School of Earth and Environment and the Priestley Centre for Climate Futures, said: ‘The strategies that policymakers take to mitigate climate change will have considerable implications for human exposure to air quality, not least of which are the number of deaths.
‘But they also urgently need to consider the persistent inequity of exposure between wealthier and more deprived populations which continues to be an issue even though air pollution has reduced across Europe.’
The full report can be read here.
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